Can damage observations from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake challenge ESHM20 and ESRM20?
Résumé
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be tested and validated individually, however testing and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognised procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of ground shaking and damages in past earthquakes lend themselves to testing the components for ground motion modelling and for the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, and ShakeMap analyses in order to make comparisons with estimations made with scenario simulations using model components developed in the context of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model. The comparisons concern the estimated ground motion intensity measures, the macroseismic intensity, the number of damaged buildings, and the probabilities of the damage grade. The divergences of the estimations from the observations, which are observed in some of comparisons, are attributed to factors external to the models, such as the location of the hypocentre.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Licence : CC BY NC SA - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Partage selon les Conditions Initiales
Licence : CC BY NC SA - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Partage selon les Conditions Initiales
