A monitoring-based management approach for Natech-related risks: reflection from a case study

Emmanuel Plot (1) , Yann Balouin (2) , Sophie Ferreira (3) , Boutillon Mathilde (1) , Vassishtasai Ramany (4) , Eric David (2) , Maria Chiara Leva (5) , Micaela Demichela (6) , Thomas Marcon (1)

1 INERIS - Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques
2 BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)
3 MTECT - Ministère de la transition énergétique et de la cohésion des territoires
4 MTECT - ministère de la Transition écologique et de la Cohésion des territoires
5 TU - Technological University [Dublin]
6 Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin

Natech risk management is an example of the difficulty of understanding and dynamically monitoring several physical phenomena in order to prepare a decision to adapt an industrial tool. On the one hand, the models on which to base the decision are very contextual and complex, integrating several hypotheses to be controlled. On the other hand, there are choices to be made concerning the parameters to be followed. Finally, there is a management of modifications, the analysis and monitoring processes being iterative. The monitoring must allow to trigger the eventual decision, and/or to lead to the evolution of the models and/or the choice of new monitoring parameters. We will present this difficulty from the case of an installation located at the seaside, confronted with a risk of submersion/flooding due to the recession of the coastline, to the erosion of the dunes, to the possible bypassing of the dunes during storms, to the rise of the water table during storms. This problem is obviously linked to global warming, but not only. It is also a contextual situation, aggravated by developments carried out over the last forty years by a municipality close to the site to avoid a coastal risk, and by the operating choices of several other industrialists nearby. How can we monitor the evolution of these phenomena and their potential impact on the integrity of installations? How to define selection criteria? How can global models and contextual factors be articulated? How to put this work in perspective with regulatory requirements? How can we bring together in a simple process the many actors who will participate in these analyses, follow-up actions and decisions? Our purpose is to discuss the mode of organization of expertise and knowledge that we envisage, which consists in using digital technology to co-construct: 1/ the models adapted to the case study and to the characteristics of the decision to be served, 2/ the analyses and choice of parameters to be monitored, 3/ the monitoring systems, 4/ the principles of the decision, 5/ the management of changes at all levels (model, parameter, monitoring, decision). All this with the concern of giving the actors to follow a scientific method where uncertainty management plays a central role.

Domaines: Géomorphologie; Risques

Emmanuel Plot, Yann Balouin, Sophie Ferreira, Boutillon Mathilde, Vassishtasai Ramany, et al.. A monitoring-based management approach for Natech-related risks: reflection from a case study. ESReDA Seminar On Technological disruptions triggered by natural events: identification, characterization, and management, Politecnico di Torino, Sep 2022, Torino, Italy. ⟨hal-03778900⟩