 |
Article dans une revue
Forecast of environment systems using expert judgements: performance comparison between the possibilistic and the classical model
Abstract : Expert judgment is widely used to inform forecasts (e.g. using the 5 th , 50 th and 95 th percentile of some variable of interest) for a large variety of applications related to environment systems. This task can rely on Cooke's classical model (CM) within the probabilistic framework, and consists in combining expert information after a preliminary step where experts are weighted using calibration and informativeness scores estimated using some seed questions for which the answers can be obtained. In the literature, an alternative model (PM) has been proposed using
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03105346
Contributeur : Jérémy Rohmer <>
Soumis le : lundi 11 janvier 2021 - 09:28:15
Dernière modification le : jeudi 21 janvier 2021 - 13:09:34
Contributeur : Jérémy Rohmer <>
Soumis le : lundi 11 janvier 2021 - 09:28:15
Dernière modification le : jeudi 21 janvier 2021 - 13:09:34
Fichier
Rohmer_Chojnacki_ESD_HAL.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)