Forecast of environment systems using expert judgements: performance comparison between the possibilistic and the classical model
Résumé
Expert judgment is widely used to inform forecasts (e.g. using the 5 th , 50 th and 95 th percentile of some variable of interest) for a large variety of applications related to environment systems. This task can rely on Cooke's classical model (CM) within the probabilistic framework, and consists in combining expert information after a preliminary step where experts are weighted using calibration and informativeness scores estimated using some seed questions for which the answers can be obtained. In the literature, an alternative model (PM) has been proposed using
Domaines
Informatique [cs] Modélisation et simulation Sciences de l'environnement Environnement et Société Sciences de l'environnement Ingénierie de l'environnement Statistiques [stat] Applications [stat.AP] Planète et Univers [physics] Sciences de la Terre Géologie appliquée Sciences de l'Homme et Société Méthodes et statistiques
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