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Assessing Components of Ground‐Motion Variability from Simulations for the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey)

Abstract : Recent studies have shown that repeatable travel-path terms make a high contribution to the overall variability in earthquake ground motions. Having maps of such terms available for a given recording site would, theoretically, allow removal of this component from the aleatory variability of ground-motion models. The assessment of such travel-path terms for a given site, however, relies on having recorded a rich set of earthquakes at that site. Given the relative youth of strong-motion networks, the assessment of such terms from observations is currently difficult for most parts of the world. Ground-motion simulations provide an alternative method to assess such terms. In this article, many dozens of earthquakes, distributed in a grid, are simulated for the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), which borders the megacity of Istanbul and is an area of high seismic hazard. Ground motions are simulated within a detailed 3D veloc- ity structure model using a finite-difference method at 70 recording sites in the area ( 200 × 120 km 2 ). Horizontal peak ground velocities from these simulations are re- gressed to derive a ground-motion model. Next, residuals from this ground-motion prediction equation are computed to assess repeatable source, site, and path terms and various components of ground-motion variability. These components are similar to those derived from real strong-motion data, thereby lending support to those esti- mates as well as showing the worth of simulations for this type of exercise
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Soumis le : vendredi 24 novembre 2017 - 15:43:17
Dernière modification le : mercredi 3 août 2022 - 04:04:10

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John Douglas, Hideo Aochi. Assessing Components of Ground‐Motion Variability from Simulations for the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016, 106 (1), pp.300 - 306. ⟨10.1785/0120150177⟩. ⟨hal-01647817⟩



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