Assessing Components of Ground‐Motion Variability from Simulations for the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey)

Abstract : Recent studies have shown that repeatable travel-path terms make a high contribution to the overall variability in earthquake ground motions. Having maps of such terms available for a given recording site would, theoretically, allow removal of this component from the aleatory variability of ground-motion models. The assessment of such travel-path terms for a given site, however, relies on having recorded a rich set of earthquakes at that site. Given the relative youth of strong-motion networks, the assessment of such terms from observations is currently difficult for most parts of the world. Ground-motion simulations provide an alternative method to assess such terms. In this article, many dozens of earthquakes, distributed in a grid, are simulated for the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), which borders the megacity of Istanbul and is an area of high seismic hazard. Ground motions are simulated within a detailed 3D veloc- ity structure model using a finite-difference method at 70 recording sites in the area ( 200 × 120 km 2 ). Horizontal peak ground velocities from these simulations are re- gressed to derive a ground-motion model. Next, residuals from this ground-motion prediction equation are computed to assess repeatable source, site, and path terms and various components of ground-motion variability. These components are similar to those derived from real strong-motion data, thereby lending support to those esti- mates as well as showing the worth of simulations for this type of exercise
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Seismological Society of America, 2016, 106 (1), pp.300 - 306. 〈10.1785/0120150177〉
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https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01647817
Contributeur : Myriam Chergui <>
Soumis le : vendredi 24 novembre 2017 - 15:43:17
Dernière modification le : vendredi 1 décembre 2017 - 01:11:47

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John Douglas, Hideo Aochi. Assessing Components of Ground‐Motion Variability from Simulations for the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Seismological Society of America, 2016, 106 (1), pp.300 - 306. 〈10.1785/0120150177〉. 〈hal-01647817〉

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