Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000–2014 in the Bay of Biscay

Abstract : Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000–2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [39 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01353578
Contributeur : Arthur Robinet <>
Soumis le : lundi 7 novembre 2016 - 10:59:55
Dernière modification le : mardi 29 mai 2018 - 12:50:49
Document(s) archivé(s) le : mercredi 8 février 2017 - 12:51:35

Fichier

Robinet et al., 2016, GML, Sta...
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

Collections

Citation

Arthur Robinet, Bruno Castelle, Déborah Idier, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Michel Déqué, et al.. Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000–2014 in the Bay of Biscay. Geo-Marine Letters, Springer Verlag, 2016, 36 (6), 〈http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00367-016-0460-8〉. 〈10.1007/s00367-016-0460-8〉. 〈hal-01353578v2〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

277

Téléchargements de fichiers

73