T. Aagaard and P. Sørensen, Sea level rise and the sediment budget of an eroding barrier on the Danish North Sea coast, Journal of Coastal Research, vol.65, issue.1, pp.434-439, 2013.
DOI : 10.2112/SI65-074.1

J. R. Allen, Beach erosion as a function of variations in the sediment budget, Sandy Hook, New Jersey, U.S.A., Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, vol.14, issue.2, pp.139-150, 1981.
DOI : 10.1002/esp.3290060207

T. R. Anderson, C. H. Fletcher, M. M. Barbee, L. N. Frazer, R. et al., Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii, Natural Hazards, vol.64, issue.1???2, pp.75-103, 2015.
DOI : 10.1007/s11069-015-1698-6

S. Arens, Patterns of sand transport on vegetated foredunes, Geomorphology, vol.17, issue.4, pp.339-350, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/0169-555X(96)00016-5

B. O. Bauer, P. A. Hesp, I. J. Walker, and R. G. Davidson-arnott, Sediment transport (dis)continuity across a beach???dune profile during an offshore wind event, Geomorphology, vol.245, pp.135-148, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.004

B. Abdallah, N. Mouhous-voyneau, N. Denoeux, and T. , Combining statistical and expert evidence using belief functions: Application to centennial sea level estimation taking into account climate change, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol.55, issue.1, pp.341-354, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ijar.2013.03.008

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00932879

E. Bird, Coastal Changes: A Global Review, 1985.

P. Bruun, Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, J. Waterway. Harbour. Div, vol.88, pp.117-130, 1962.

T. Bulteau, D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin, How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France), Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, vol.15, issue.6, 2015.
DOI : 10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01160309

M. Carson, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, A. Slangen, C. Katsman et al., Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century, Climatic Change, vol.23, issue.5???6, pp.269-281, 2016.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1

B. Castelle, V. Marieu, S. Bujan, S. Ferreira, J. Parisot et al., Equilibrium shoreline modelling of a high-energy meso-macrotidal multiple-barred beach, Marine Geology, vol.347, pp.85-94, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.margeo.2013.11.003

B. Castelle, V. Marieu, S. Bujan, K. D. Splinter, A. Robinet et al., Impact of the winter 2013???2014 series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach and dune erosion and megacusp embayments, Geomorphology, vol.238, pp.135-148, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.006

J. Church, P. Clark, A. Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva et al., Sea Level Change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp.1137-1216, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01016532

J. A. Cooper and O. H. Pilkey, Longshore Drift: Trapped in an Expected Universe, Journal of Sedimentary Research, vol.74, issue.5, pp.599-606, 2004.
DOI : 10.1306/022204740599

P. J. Cowell, M. J. Stive, A. W. Niedoroda, H. J. De-vriend, D. J. Swift et al., The coastal-tract (part 1): a conceptual approach to aggregated modeling of low-order coastal change, J. Coast. Res, vol.19, pp.812-827, 2003.

P. J. Cowell, M. J. Stive, A. W. Niedoroda, D. J. Swift, H. J. De-vriend et al., The coastal-tract (part 2): applications of aggregated modeling of lower-order coastal change, J. Coast. Res, vol.19, pp.828-848, 2003.

S. Dangendorf, M. Marcos, A. Müller, E. Zorita, R. Riva et al., Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise, Nature Communications, vol.295, pp.7849-7859, 1038.
DOI : 10.1038/ncomms8849

R. G. Davidson-arnott, Conceptual Model of the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Sandy Coasts, Journal of Coastal Research, vol.216, issue.1, pp.1166-1172, 2005.
DOI : 10.2112/03-0051.1

D. L. Forbes, G. S. Parkes, G. K. Manson, and L. A. Ketch, Storms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Marine Geology, vol.210, issue.1-4, pp.169-204, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.009

J. French, A. Payo, B. Murray, J. Orford, M. Eliot et al., Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales, Geomorphology, vol.256, pp.3-16, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.10.005

N. Golledge, D. Kowalewski, T. Naish, R. Levy, C. Fogwill et al., The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise, Nature, vol.333, issue.7573, pp.421-425, 1038.
DOI : 10.1038/nature15706

S. Hallegatte, C. Green, R. J. Nicholls, and J. Corfee-morlot, Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change, vol.3, issue.9, pp.802-806, 1038.
DOI : 10.2112/06-0725.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00857327

J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ? C global warming is highly dangerous, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discus, vol.155194, pp.20059-20179, 2015.

M. Harley, I. Turner, and A. Short, New insights into embayed beach rotation: The importance of wave exposure and cross-shore processes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol.73, issue.1-4, pp.1470-1484, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.margeo.2013.07.018

M. Harley, I. Turner, A. Short, R. , R. Hemer et al., A reevaluation of coastal embayment rotation: the dominance of cross-shore versus alongshore sediment transport processes, Collaroy-Narrabeen beach, southeast Australia Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. Nat. Clim. Change, vol.116, issue.3, pp.471-476, 1038.

P. A. Hesp, I. J. Walker, C. Chapman, R. Davidson-arnott, and B. O. Bauer, Aeolian dynamics over a coastal foredune, Canada. Earth Surf. Process. Land, vol.38, pp.1566-1575, 2013.

J. Hinkel, R. J. Nicholls, R. S. Tol, Z. B. Wang, J. M. Hamilton et al., A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA, Global and Planetary Change, vol.111, pp.150-158, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002

C. Hinton and R. J. Nicholls, Spatial and temportal behavior of depth of closure along the Holland coast, Coast. Eng. Proc, vol.1, issue.9780784404119, pp.2913-2925, 1998.

B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, S. E. Engelhart, and A. C. Kemp, Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300, Quaternary Science Reviews, vol.84, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002

D. Idier, B. Castelle, E. Charles, and C. Mallet, Longshore sediment flux hindcast: spatio-temporal variability along the SW Atlantic coast of France, Journal of Coastal Research, vol.165, 2013.
DOI : 10.2112/SI65-302.1

D. Idier, J. Rohmer, T. Bulteau, and E. Delvallée, Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, vol.13, issue.4, pp.999-1013, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/nhess-13-999-2013

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00821183

D. L. Inman and R. Dolan, The outer banks of North-Carolina -budget of sediment and inlet dynamics along a migrating barrier system, J. Coast. Res, vol.5, pp.193-237, 1989.

M. J. Jansen, Analysis of variance designs for model output, Computer Physics Communications, vol.117, issue.1-2, pp.35-43, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0010-4655(98)00154-4

S. Jevrejeva, A. Grinsted, M. , and J. C. , Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100, Environmental Research Letters, vol.9, issue.10, pp.1748-9326, 2014.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008

R. E. Kopp, R. M. Horton, C. M. Little, J. X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer et al., Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites, Earth's Future, vol.2, issue.4, pp.383-406, 1002.
DOI : 10.1002/2014EF000239

M. Larson, L. Erikson, H. , and H. , An analytical model to predict dune erosion due to wave impact, Coastal Engineering, vol.51, issue.8-9, pp.675-696, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.07.003

L. Cozannet, G. Garcin, M. Yates, M. Idier, D. Meyssignac et al., Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes, Earth-Science Reviews, vol.138, pp.47-60, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01060689

L. Cozannet, G. Rohmer, J. Cazenave, A. Idier, D. Van-de-wal et al., Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.73, pp.44-56, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.021

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01118683

S. P. Leatherman, K. Zhang, D. , B. C. Leatherman, S. P. Zhang et al., Reply [to ???Comment on ???Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion??????], Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.10, issue.38, pp.437-441, 2000.
DOI : 10.1029/00EO00330

M. Marcos, M. N. Tsimplis, and A. G. Shaw, Sea level extremes in southern Europe, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.27, issue.1831, pp.10-1029, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2008JC004912

S. Marsh, R. Nicholls, A. Kroon, and P. Hoekstra, Assessment of Depth of Closure on a Nourished Beach: Terschelling, The Netherlands, Coastal Engineering 1998, pp.3110-3123, 1998.
DOI : 10.1061/9780784404119.236

G. Masselink, B. Castelle, T. Scott, G. Dodet, S. Suanez et al., Extreme wave activity during 2013/2014 winter and morphological impacts along the Atlantic coast of Europe, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.26, issue.5, pp.2135-2143, 1002.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL023684

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01279772

E. T. Mendoza and J. A. Jiménez, Storm-induced beach erosion potential on the catalonian coast, Journal of Coastal Research, Proceedings of the 3rd Spanish Conference on Coastal Geomorphology, pp.81-88, 2006.

M. Menéndez and P. L. Woodworth, Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.13, issue.5, pp.10-1029, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JC005997

A. Miller, S. N. Jonkman, V. Ledden, and M. , Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, vol.2, issue.1, pp.825-864, 2014.
DOI : 10.5194/nhessd-2-825-2014

S. Mishra, Assigning Probability Distributions to Input Parameters of Performance Assessment Models, 2002.

N. Mori, T. Yasuda, H. Mase, T. Tom, and Y. Oku, Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming, Hydrological Research Letters, vol.4, issue.0, pp.15-19, 2010.
DOI : 10.3178/hrl.4.15

R. J. Nicholls and A. Cazenave, Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones, Science, vol.328, issue.5985, 2010.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1185782

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00991281

R. J. Nicholls and J. A. Lowe, Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas, Global Environmental Change, vol.14, issue.3, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.005

A. Pardaens, J. Lowe, S. Brown, R. Nicholls, D. Gusmâo et al., Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.22, issue.1, p.10, 1029.
DOI : 10.1029/2011GL047678

D. L. Passeri, S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad et al., The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review, Tempete Xynthia: Compte Rendu de Mission Préliminaire, pp.159-181, 2010.
DOI : 10.1002/2015EF000298

N. G. Plant, J. Flocks, H. F. Stockdon, J. W. Long, K. Guy et al., Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol.114, issue.6, pp.300-316, 1002.
DOI : 10.1029/2010JC006681

S. Planton, M. Déqué, F. Chauvin, and L. Terray, Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, vol.340, issue.9-10, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.crte.2008.07.009

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00341277

R. Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014.

R. Ranasinghe, D. Callaghan, and M. J. Stive, Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule, Climatic Change, vol.43, issue.2, pp.561-574, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-011-0107-8

R. Ranasinghe, R. Mcloughlin, A. Short, and G. Symonds, The Southern Oscillation Index, wave climate, and beach rotation, Marine Geology, vol.204, issue.3-4, pp.273-287, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/S0025-3227(04)00002-7

R. Ranasinghe and M. J. Stive, Rising seas and retreating coastlines, Climatic Change, vol.64, issue.3, pp.465-468, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-009-9593-3

D. E. Reeve, H. Karunarathna, S. Pan, J. M. Horrillo-caraballo, G. Ró?-zy´nskizy´nski et al., Data-driven and hybrid coastal morphological prediction methods for mesoscale forecasting, Geomorphology, vol.256, pp.49-67, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.10.016

E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, M. Van-den-broeke, A. Monaghan, J. Lenaerts et al., Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations, 38:L05503. doi: 10.1029, pp.115-118, 2009.

A. H. Sallenger, R. Morton, C. Fletcher, E. R. Thieler, and P. Howd, Comment [on ???Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion???], Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.140, issue.38, pp.436-436, 2000.
DOI : 10.1029/EO081i038p00436-02

A. Saltelli, Global sensitivity analysis: an introduction, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO'04) (Los Alamos, NM), pp.27-43, 2004.

A. Saltelli, P. Annoni, I. Azzini, F. Campolongo, M. Ratto et al., Variance based sensitivity analysis of model output. Design and estimator for the total sensitivity index, Computer Physics Communications, vol.181, issue.2, pp.259-270, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.cpc.2009.09.018

A. Saltelli, M. Ratto, T. Andres, F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni et al., Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, 2008.
DOI : 10.1002/9780470725184

A. Slangen, M. Carson, C. Katsman, R. Van-de-wal, A. Köhl et al., Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes, Climatic Change, vol.2, issue.1, pp.317-332, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9

A. Slangen, J. A. Church, X. Zhang, and D. Monselesan, Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.93, issue.4, pp.5951-5959, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

J. M. Slott, A. B. Murray, A. D. Ashton, and T. J. Crowley, Coastline responses to changing storm patterns, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.64, issue.18, pp.18404-18414, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2005JF000423

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.516.2011

I. M. Sobol-', On the distribution of points in a cube and the approximate evaluation of integrals, USSR Comput. Math. Math. Phys, vol.767, pp.86-112, 1967.

I. M. Sobol-', Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol.55, issue.1-3, pp.271-280, 2001.
DOI : 10.1016/S0378-4754(00)00270-6

K. D. Splinter, I. L. Turner, M. A. Davidson, P. Barnard, B. Castelle et al., A generalized equilibrium model for predicting daily to interannual shoreline response, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol.116, issue.12, pp.1936-1958, 1002.
DOI : 10.1029/2010JC006681

M. J. Stive, M. Palmer, K. Trenberth, A. Cazenave, D. Chambers et al., How important is global warming for coastal erosion? an editorial comment doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024785. 91858 An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance, Clim. Change Nat. Clim. Change, vol.64, issue.6, pp.27-39, 1038.

D. J. Wainwright, R. Ranasinghe, D. P. Callaghan, C. D. Woodroffe, R. Jongejan et al., Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: Development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia, Coastal Engineering, vol.96, pp.92-99, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.11.009

R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, C. , and K. , Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science Advances, vol.1, issue.8, 2015.
DOI : 10.1126/sciadv.1500589

C. D. Woodroffe and C. V. Murray-wallace, Sea-level rise and coastal change: the past as a guide to the future, Quaternary Science Reviews, vol.54, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.05.009

P. L. Woodworth, M. Menéndez, P. L. Woodworth, M. Menendez, and W. R. Gehrels, Changes in the mesoscale variability and in extreme sea levels over two decades as observed by satellite altimetry, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.39, issue.4-5, pp.64-77, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2012GL053240

L. Wright and A. D. Short, Morphodynamic variability of surf zones and beaches: A synthesis, Marine Geology, vol.56, issue.1-4, pp.93-118, 1984.
DOI : 10.1016/0025-3227(84)90008-2

M. Yates, R. Guza, O. Reilly, and W. , Equilibrium shoreline response: Observations and modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.62, issue.C7, pp.10-1029, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JC005359

M. L. Yates, L. Cozannet, G. Lenotre, and N. , Quantifying errors in longterm coastal erosion and inundation hazard assessments, Journal of Coastal Research, Proceedings of the 11th International Coastal Symposium (Szczecin), pp.260-264, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00564846

K. Q. Zhang, B. C. Douglas, and S. P. Leatherman, Global Warming and Coastal Erosion, Climatic Change, vol.64, issue.1/2, 2004.
DOI : 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024690.32682.48