Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting

Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (1)

1 BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)

This chapter reviews existing long term water demand forecasting methodologies. Based on an extensive literature review, it shows that the domain has benefited from contributions by economists, engineers and system modelers, producing a wide range of tools, many of which have been tested and adopted by practitioners. It illustrates, via three detailed case studies in the USA, the UK and Australia, how different tools can be used depending on the regulatory context, the water scarcity level, the geographic scale at which they are deployed and the technical background of water utilities and their consultants. The chapter reviews how practitioners address three main challenges, namely the integration of land use planning with demand forecasting; accounting for climate change; and dealing with forecast uncertainty. It concludes with a discussion of research perspectives in that domain.

Mots clés: water demand forecasting; economic modeling; end-use modeling; statistical modeling; France; Australia; UK; USA

Domaines: Economies et finances; Sciences de la Terre

Jean-Daniel Rinaudo. Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting. Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition, p 239-268, 2015, ⟨10.1007/978-94-017-9801-3_11⟩. ⟨hal-01183853⟩