Variability estimation in ground motion around Istanbul based on the probabilistic dynamic rupture scenarios along the North Anatolian fault

Abstract : Variability of ground motion estimation according to various earthquake scenarios is studied in the region of the Sea of Marmara around Istanbul, Turkey, through numerical simulations using a 3D finite-difference method with CPU-GPU implementation. The earthquake scenarios dynamically simulated based on mechanical models are given with probability according to the geological, geophysical and seismological hypotheses. We adopt a 3D geological model of the Sea of Marmara taken into account of the basin structure (down to about 10 km depth) and the existence of the Sea layer (1.5 km depth at max.). Although beneath the land part around the Sea of Marmara is briefly a 1D structure, the influence of the 3D structure of the basin on the ground motion caused by the earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault is significant. Various earthquake scenarios of a magnitude of about 7 lead to a very heterogeneous ground motion pattern. For the selected points, we carry out statistical analysis on its characterization. In Istanbul area, a very strong ground motion (peak ground velocity larger than 1 m/s) may not be the most probable scenario, but has a probability of a few percents in the case where the stress drop is extremely high enough to lead to a super-shear rupture propagation.
Type de document :
Communication dans un congrès
26th IUGG general assembly, Jun 2015, Prague, Czech Republic. 〈http://www.iugg2015prague.com/〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01137757
Contributeur : Hideo Aochi <>
Soumis le : mardi 31 mars 2015 - 13:38:12
Dernière modification le : mardi 9 juin 2015 - 10:08:02
Document(s) archivé(s) le : mercredi 1 juillet 2015 - 11:44:41

Fichiers

Aochi_IUGG2015.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01137757, version 1

Collections

Citation

Hideo Aochi, Thomas Ulrich, David Michea, Fabrice Dupros. Variability estimation in ground motion around Istanbul based on the probabilistic dynamic rupture scenarios along the North Anatolian fault. 26th IUGG general assembly, Jun 2015, Prague, Czech Republic. 〈http://www.iugg2015prague.com/〉. 〈hal-01137757〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

51

Téléchargements de fichiers

46