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Communication dans un congrès
Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises
Abstract : As sea-level rises, the frequency of coastal marine flooding events is changing.
For accurate assessments, several other factors must be considered as well, such as the variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. Here, a global sensitivity analysis is used to provide quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertainties over the coming decades. The method is applied on an urban low-lying coastal site located in the northwestern Mediterranean, where the yearly probability of damaging flooding could grow drastically after 2050. Storm surge propagation processes, then sea-level variability, and, later, global sea-level rise scenarios become successively important source of uncertainties over the 21st century. This defines research priorities that depend on the target period of interest. On the long term, scenarios RCP 6.0 and 8.0 challenge local capacities of adaptation for the considered site.
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01118683
Contributeur : Gonéri Le Cozannet Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur
Soumis le : jeudi 19 février 2015 - 15:59:39
Dernière modification le : lundi 11 octobre 2021 - 13:02:07
Contributeur : Gonéri Le Cozannet Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur
Soumis le : jeudi 19 février 2015 - 15:59:39
Dernière modification le : lundi 11 octobre 2021 - 13:02:07