Forecast of changes in piezometric levels by a lumped hydrological model
Résumé
This paper presents a lumped parameter hydrological model for the simulation of the levels of an unconfined aquifer influenced by variations of recharge from rainfall. The model has been applied to thirteen independent observation wells in the chalk aquifer in Picardie (France). This paper shows the results obtained, the care necessary for the calibration of the model and the surprises encountered. It is shown how the model has been modified, by an updating procedure taking into account the observed discrepancies, to be used in long-term forecasting. A forecast is performed using possible scenarios of rainfall during the following months.