Natural risks assessment for preventing future disasters: contributions of different approaches from heuristic knowledge to deterministic models

Abstract : In the present changing world, it is essential to contribute to the development of a proactive risk-assessment framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies impacted by natural risks. For dealing with such issue, methodological tools are necessary to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal response when submitted to different kinds of natural hazards. Referring to UN/ISDR , resilience is defined by "the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure". This capacity is generally determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to learn from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures