Arrêt de service programmé du vendredi 10 juin 16h jusqu’au lundi 13 juin 9h. Pour en savoir plus
Accéder directement au contenu Accéder directement à la navigation
Communication dans un congrès

Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations

Abstract : The Marmara region (Turkey) along the North Anatolian fault is known as a high potential of large earthquakes in the next decades. For the purpose of seismic hazard/risk evaluation, kinematic and dynamic source models have been proposed (e.g. Oglesby and Mai, GJI, 2012). In general, the simulated earthquake scenarios depend on the hypothesis and cannot be verified before the expected earthquake. We then introduce a probabilistic insight to give the initial/boundary conditions to statistically analyze the simulated scenarios. We prepare different fault geometry models, tectonic loading and hypocenter locations. We keep the same framework of the simulation procedure as the dynamic rupture process of the adjacent 1999 Izmit earthquake (Aochi and Madariaga, BSSA, 2003), as the previous models were able to reproduce the seismological/geodetic aspects of the event. Irregularities in fault geometry play a significant role to control the rupture progress, and a relatively large change in geometry may work as barriers. The variety of the simulate earthquake scenarios should be useful for estimating the variety of the expected ground motion.
Liste complète des métadonnées
Contributeur : Hideo Aochi Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur
Soumis le : mardi 14 janvier 2014 - 10:19:44
Dernière modification le : jeudi 3 février 2022 - 14:56:03


  • HAL Id : hal-00929917, version 1



Hideo Aochi. Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations. European Geosicience Union, Apr 2014, Wiens, Austria. ⟨hal-00929917⟩



Consultations de la notice