Comparison of seismic risk estimates using different methods to model fragility

Pierre Gehl (1) , Ariane Ducellier (1) , Caterina Negulescu (1) , Jaime Abad (1) , John Douglas (1)

1 BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)

Seismic risk evaluations play an important role in preparing for future damaging earthquakes and, consequently, over the past couple of decades hundreds of such studies have been conducted. However, the assessment of seismic risk is always associated with significant uncertainties because of a lack of knowledge and data on earthquake hazard, vulnerability and exposure. This is especially true when assessing the risk of an entire city, where available building information is often rudimentary. These uncertainties have an impact on disaster planning and can lead to an inefficient use of resources...

Mots clés: earthquake risk; vulnerability; uncertainties; fragility curves; reinforced concrete

Domaines: Planète et Univers [physics]; Sciences de la Terre; Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Physique [physics]; Physique [physics]; Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Sciences de l'environnement; Milieux et Changements globaux

Pierre Gehl, Ariane Ducellier, Caterina Negulescu, Jaime Abad, John Douglas. Comparison of seismic risk estimates using different methods to model fragility. Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (2ECEES) : a joint event of the 15th European Conference on Earthquake engineering & 34th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Aug 2014, Istanbul, Turkey. ⟨hal-00926702⟩