Changing Patterns in Climate-Driven Landslide Hazard: An Alpine Test Site
Résumé
The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. The proposed approach is based on coupling a hydrological model (GARDENIA®) with a slope stability model (ALICE®), estimating safety factors spatially. From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. The methodology is applied to the Ubaye valley (France) using present and past climate conditions.