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Communication dans un congrès

Prediction of changes in landslide rates induced by rainfall

Abstract : This work focuses on the use of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool associates a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacements) and a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. visco-plastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressures. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France), one of the most active and instrumented clayey landslide in the European Alps. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime with very good accuracy (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); at the contrary, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced: this statement, quantitatively characterised by the Root Mean Square Error between the model and the observations, constitutes however a robust approach to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series, several days before it happens. The variability of the results, depending in particular on the fluidization events and on the location of displacement data is discussed.
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Communication dans un congrès
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https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00852288
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Soumis le : mardi 20 août 2013 - 14:57:32
Dernière modification le : mercredi 8 avril 2020 - 09:50:04
Archivage à long terme le : : jeudi 21 novembre 2013 - 04:14:38

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  • HAL Id : hal-00852288, version 1

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Séverine Bernardie, Nicolas Desramaut, Matouk Azib, Gilles Grandjean, Jean-Philippe Malet. Prediction of changes in landslide rates induced by rainfall. Journées Aléas Gravitaires 2013, Sep 2013, Grenoble, France. 6 p. ⟨hal-00852288⟩

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