Proposal of agent simulation methodology for the prospective analysis of mineral commodities markets
Résumé
The markets of mineral commodities for industrial use (MCI) risk supply shortages in the near future due to a possible restriction policy applied by producers. Therefore, the French government is not reassured because, over the coming decades, such situations may affect French industrial sectors using these products. By taking the world lithium market as an application example, this work aims to contribute to the elaboration of a multi-agent system (MAS) prospective tool, which allows decision makers to evaluate possible supply shortage periods in the world market and in France. The discussion is extended to the aggregates market, another kind of MCI market. The work also aims to evaluate to what extent MAS methodology is accepted in the literature regarding MCI system prospective analysis. This work concludes that a MAS approach could provide a new methodology for analysing MCI markets. However, convincing MCI sectors to use it remains a challenge.
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