Accéder directement au contenu Accéder directement à la navigation
Article dans une revue

Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades: Peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration

Abstract : Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Since the quality and quantity of strong-motion datasets is constantly increasing it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and data) is decreasing. This article is a continuation of the study of Douglas (2010) for ground-motion parameters other than peak ground acceleration (PGA) and elastic response spectral acceleration (SA). The epistemic uncertainty in the prediction of peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration is investigated by plotting predictions from dozens of GMPEs for these parameters against date of publication for three scenarios. In agreement with the previous study, all ground-motion parameters considered show high epistemic uncertainty (often even higher than previously reported for PGA and SA), suggesting that research efforts for the development of GMPEs for these parameters should continue and that it is vital that this uncertainty is accounted for in seismic hazard assessments. The epistemic uncertainty in the prediction of relative significant duration, however, appears to be much lower than any other strong-motion parameter, which suggests that currently available GMPEs for this intensity measure are sufficiently mature.
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [116 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00693175
Contributeur : John Douglas <>
Soumis le : mercredi 2 mai 2012 - 10:12:18
Dernière modification le : mardi 29 mai 2018 - 16:06:04
Archivage à long terme le : : vendredi 3 août 2012 - 10:10:22

Fichier

douglas2012.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

Collections

Citation

John Douglas. Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades: Peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, Springer Verlag, 2012, 10 (5), pp.1339-1356. ⟨10.1007/s10518-012-9359-6⟩. ⟨hal-00693175⟩

Partager

Métriques