Evolution of coastal zone vulnerability to marine inundation in a global change context. Application to Languedoc Roussillon (France)

Abstract : The coastal system is likely to suffer increasing costal risk in a global change context. Its management implies to consider those risks in a holistic approach of the different vulnerability components of the coastal zone, by improving knowledge of hazard and exposure as well as analyzing and quantifying present day and future territory vulnerability. The ANR/VMC2007/MISEEVA project (2008-2011) has applied this approach on Languedoc Roussillon region in France. MISEEVA approach relies on several scenarios for 2030 and 2100, in terms of meteorology (driver of coastal hazard), sea level rise, and also considering further trends in demography and economy, and possible adaption strategies Hazard has been modeled (SWAN, MARS and SURFWB), on the base of the presentday situation, sea level rise hypotheses, and existing or modeled data, of extreme meteorological driving f. It allowed to assess the possible surges ranges and map coastal zone exposure to: - a permanent inundation (considering sea level rise in 2030 and 2100, - a recurrent inundation (considering sea level rise and extreme tidal range) - an exceptional inundation (adding extreme storm surge to sea level rise and tidal range). In 2030, exposure will be comparable to present day exposure. In 2100, extreme condition will affect a larger zone. Present days social and economic components of the coastal zone have been analyzed in terms of vulnerability and potential damaging. Adaptation capacity was approached by public inquiries and interviews of stakeholders and policy makers, based on existing planning documents The knowledge of the present day system is then compared to the possible management strategies that could be chosen in the future, so to imagine what would be the evolution of vulnerability to marine inundation, in regards to these possible strategies.