Secular trends in incidence of acute gastroenteritis in general practice, France, 1991 to 2015

Abstract : We analysed 25 years of general practitioner (GP) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AG) surveillance in France, by the GP Sentinelles network. We searched for time trends of acute gastroenteritis incidence during winter periods. Data from emergency departments and drug reimbursement were additional data sources. A time-series analysis was performed using a generalised additive model for all data sources for the winter period. Virological data were incorporated and compared with the three data sources. The cumulative incidence of GP visits for winter AG exhibited an increasing trend from 1991 until 2008, when it reached 6,466 per 100,000 inhabitants. It decreased thereafter to 3,918 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015. This decreasing trend was observed for all age groups and confirmed by the generalised additive model. For emergency department visits a decreasing trend was observed from 2004. Drug reimbursement data analyses demonstrated a decreasing trend from when data began in 2009. The incidence reported by GPs and emergency departments was lower following the emergence of norovirus GII.4 2012 (p < 0.0001). Winter AG incidences seem to follow long-term rising and decreasing trends that are important to monitor through continuous surveillance to evaluate the impact of prevention strategies, such as future immunisation against acute viral gastroenteritis.